Who Will Win The Oscar For Best Picture?

The Oscars are ridiculously late this year, kind of like when Chanukah starts on December 24. The Academy Awards should be a wrap by February 20 at the latest. But regardless, Awards Season chugs on, as if we’d boarded the local train when we meant to catch the express. Best Picture seems like a foregone conclusion, but there’s still time to lay your bets. I consulted a friend of ours, a Vegas oddsmaker who wants to remain anonymous so they don’t lose their job, and they laid down the odds for. I’ve added commentary so you can intelligently place bets on Gay March Madness.

Oppenheimer -400. This means you have to bet $400 to win $500. While Oppenheimer seems like the closest we’ve had to sure thing to win Best Picture in a decade, this is not good value for your money. There can always be an upset. So if you’re feeling drunk or cocky and slap down $5000 on Oppenheimer with your bookie, you can either win $500 or lose $5000. Our resident oddsmaker made sure to ask us to call out certain Vegas oddsmakers who are listing Oppenheimer at a usurious -1000. That’s got to be the worst value bet in gambling history.

Killers of the Flower Moon +800. Here we get into positive territory, meaning if you bet $100 on KOTFM, you win $800. Unfortunately, Killers of the Flower Moon, despite being a sort-of favorite before people actually saw it, is not going to win Best Picture. When we first contacted our oddsmaker, they listed it at +400, and almost immediately adjusted it downward. You do the math. Your best bet on this picture would be for Lily Gladstone in the Best Actress category, but that one is sort of competitive, so it’s risky.

The Zone of Interest. +1500. This is actually BFG’s value bet pick for a Chariots of Fire-style Best Picture upset. Three weeks ago, I actually had the thought that The Zone of Interest, which was my personal pick for the best movie of 2023, was going to do it, as the buzz built when people actually got a chance to see it. That buzz has since cooled, but depending on when voting took place, this could shock the world. And if it does, and you had the guts to bet on a Holocaust movie that’s not Schindler’s List, then drinks are on you at the Oscar after-party. The Zone of Interest is probably a lock for Best International Picture, but this is where the potential money sits.

The Holdovers +1500. When I first saw The Holdovers, I thought “no way.” And then people starting gushing over The Holdovers around Christmas, and I thought that maybe this has a chance for a Green Book-style semi-middlebrow underdog pick. Now I am back to saying “no way” again. But some people really love it. Though Paul Giamatti for Best Actor and Da’Vine Joy Randolph for Best Supporting Actress are your better Holdovers value picks, you could worse than hedging your bets for Best Picture here.

Poor Things +1500. There is no way on Earth that this weird steampunk Frankenhooker movie is going to be Best Picture against insanely tough competition. If you want to bet on Poor Things, put all your money on Emma Stone.

Barbie +1800. It’s a miracle that the least-snubbed Oscar snub movie of all time has this nomination at all. If you’d bet a year ago that Barbie would get any Oscar nominations at all, then you’d be very wealthy. But if your betting on it to actually win, you’re entering the stakes too late.

Anatomy of a Fall +2500. This is our darkest of dark-horse value picks if you’re really a Best Picture gambler. An excellent film featuring a steel-drum cover of ‘P.I.M.P’ and some ridiculous French courtroom outfits. I don’t think that Anatomy of a Fall is going to win, but the outrageously loving acceptance of its star dog, Messi, on the Oscar circuit shows that people have seen the film and love it, not just because of the dog. If you have some extra hundreds in your gambling bankroll, put a couple of them down on this one and see what happens.

American Fiction +5000. No movie directed by a former Gawker editor is going to win Best Picture on my watch. Put your money on Sterling K. Brown or maybe Jeffrey Wright. The film will not come close.

Maestro +6000. Far and away the worst of the ten Best Picture nominees. M3GAN or Cocaine Bear would have a better chance of winning Best Picture than Bradley Cooper’s mannered Leonard Bernstein biopic. Save your pennies.

Past Lives +6000. Small, low-key, and dull. If the Academy’s membership was composed entirely of people who religiously listen to Morning Edition from 6 to 9 AM, Past Lives still wouldn’t even remotely have a chance. That said, you’re betting $100 to win $6000. It’s better odds than you’re getting for Oppenheimer.