Are Movies “Back”?

“Movies are back!” Wells Fargo analyst Omar Mejias recently wrote in a research note on Cinemark Holdings.

That caused Cinemark stock to rise. Which is a good thing for the theater chain, the third largest in the U.S, with about 4,400 screens, which, like other chains, was hammered by COVID: for five to six months in 2020, because closures, no one was going to the movies, except for our editor in chief.

But are they back?

Seems like that may be a short-sighted view.

Improving, yes. “Back” may be a stretch, taking other data points into account.

For example, five years ago, in 2019, pre-pandemic Cinemark was trading at about $42 per share. It is now under $20. Realize this number is a post-Mejias proclamation increase. It was bumping along at a lower rate before that.

Still, it is a hell of a lot better than AMC, the largest theater chain in the U.S., with about 8,800 screens: it is at ~$3.25 per share today, less than a box of popcorn. Five years ago it was at $64. That’s a 95% decrease.

And here is something to keep in mind: between 2019 and now inflation has risen about 21%, so there would need to be a rise of 21% to stay even—which means Cinemark would have to be at about $51 and AMC at $77, certainly a massive difference from where they are today.

Back?

Hardy seems to be the case.

To fairly compare whether movies are in a major recovery mode compared to last year we have to restrict our comparison to about the first quarter of each year. But to make a somewhat blatant point, we’ll push the quarter by a week.

If we look back to the box office through the weekend of April 7, 2023, according to “The Numbers” the movie that had the biggest weekend was The Super Mario Bros. Movie. It took in, that April weekend, $146,361,865.

What movie had the biggest weekend in 2024 through April 7?

It was for “Dune: Part Two.” Its receipts were $82,505,391–$63,856,474 less than what Mario took in.

In fact, to put the performance of Dune: Part Two into context: the generally reviled Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania had a box office during the weekend of February 17, 2023, of $106,109,650, or $23,604,259 more than what is now the largest-grossing film of 2024.

Just as a coincidence of the calendar, there was an April 7, 2024, weekend as in 2023. The biggest film that weekend was Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, taking in $31,203,359. That’s just 21% of Mario. The plumber smacked down two legendary monsters.

Back?

And then there are the stats from FranchiseRe for March 2024: up 3.6% compared with March 2023. . .but down 25.8% compared with the average for pre-pandemic Marches (2017, 2018, 2019).

The first quarter 2024 is down 12.3% compared to Q1 2023. . .but down 40.8% compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

And it is worth noting that 2024 has some interesting releases ahead, including The Fall Guy, Bad Boys: Ride or Die, Deadpool & Wolverine, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Despicable Me 4, and Alien: Romulus.

While there is probably not a Barbie among them, a ~$635-million beast at the domestic box office, you never can tell, because future results can surprise us.

Maybe Omar Mejias is right and movies are back.